2025-11-18
Kraken — the calm before the next crypto storm
In 2021, crypto was loud.
It felt like every week brought a new exchange, a new token, a new revolution.
But I wasn’t looking for noise. I was looking for discipline. Kraken caught my attention not because it promised the future — but because it had already survived most of the past.
A company building infrastructure instead of hype.
A company choosing reliability over marketing.
A company that didn’t need to shout to be heard.
This investment was made as part of my work with the Digital Disrupt venture club, a community focused on long-term innovation and technological shifts — and a place where we explored ideas built to outlast cycles.
It felt like every week brought a new exchange, a new token, a new revolution.
But I wasn’t looking for noise. I was looking for discipline. Kraken caught my attention not because it promised the future — but because it had already survived most of the past.
A company building infrastructure instead of hype.
A company choosing reliability over marketing.
A company that didn’t need to shout to be heard.
This investment was made as part of my work with the Digital Disrupt venture club, a community focused on long-term innovation and technological shifts — and a place where we explored ideas built to outlast cycles.
1
The idea that stood out
Most crypto platforms tried to look young, flashy, explosive.
Kraken felt different.
It felt engineered.
Founded in 2011, it had lived through every crypto winter.
It focused on compliance and security when others ignored them.
It prioritized liquidity and custody when others prioritized hype.
I wasn’t looking for the next meme.
I was looking for the exchange institutions would trust when the dust settled.
In March 2021, Kraken was valued at ~$10.5B — already one of the oldest and most respected platforms in the sector.
It had something rare for crypto: credibility.
Kraken felt different.
It felt engineered.
Founded in 2011, it had lived through every crypto winter.
It focused on compliance and security when others ignored them.
It prioritized liquidity and custody when others prioritized hype.
I wasn’t looking for the next meme.
I was looking for the exchange institutions would trust when the dust settled.
In March 2021, Kraken was valued at ~$10.5B — already one of the oldest and most respected platforms in the sector.
It had something rare for crypto: credibility.
2
What the numbers say — and what they don’t
Fast-forward to 2025.
Kraken’s estimated secondary-market valuation is now around $14–15B, steady and predictable — exactly the trajectory you want from a company preparing for the public markets.
Here is where Kraken stands today:
— 12M+ verified users
— ~$2–3B in daily trading volume
— $22B in assets under custody
— $1.45B revenue for 2024 (+48% YoY)
— ~35% EBITDA margin
— 2,300 employees
— Business lines spanning spot, futures, staking, and institutional custody
This is what slow, deliberate, intelligent growth looks like.
Kraken’s estimated secondary-market valuation is now around $14–15B, steady and predictable — exactly the trajectory you want from a company preparing for the public markets.
Here is where Kraken stands today:
— 12M+ verified users
— ~$2–3B in daily trading volume
— $22B in assets under custody
— $1.45B revenue for 2024 (+48% YoY)
— ~35% EBITDA margin
— 2,300 employees
— Business lines spanning spot, futures, staking, and institutional custody
This is what slow, deliberate, intelligent growth looks like.
3
What happened since then
2022–2023 — the great collapse
FTX, Celsius, BlockFi — the giants that were supposed to shape crypto’s future — disappeared almost overnight.
Trust evaporated.
Billions vanished.
Kraken stayed liquid.
Withdrawals stayed open.
Institutions moved toward it, not away from it.
2024 — expansion and regulationKraken acquired the Dutch exchange BCM
and secured MiCA-compliant licensing across the EU — one of the most important regulatory steps in years.
2025 — preparing for IPOThe company is now quietly working with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Expected IPO timing: late 2026.
Meanwhile, Kraken remained patient — unlike Coinbase, which listed at $85B, fell below $30B, and became a symbol of how volatility punishes early listings.
Kraken chose to wait.
FTX, Celsius, BlockFi — the giants that were supposed to shape crypto’s future — disappeared almost overnight.
Trust evaporated.
Billions vanished.
Kraken stayed liquid.
Withdrawals stayed open.
Institutions moved toward it, not away from it.
2024 — expansion and regulationKraken acquired the Dutch exchange BCM
and secured MiCA-compliant licensing across the EU — one of the most important regulatory steps in years.
2025 — preparing for IPOThe company is now quietly working with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Expected IPO timing: late 2026.
Meanwhile, Kraken remained patient — unlike Coinbase, which listed at $85B, fell below $30B, and became a symbol of how volatility punishes early listings.
Kraken chose to wait.
4
The competitive landscape
Crypto in 2025 is a smaller battlefield — but a clearer one.
— Coinbase ($52B) — first-mover, huge scale, but regulation-sensitive
— Kraken ($15B) — institutional trust, strong compliance, stable margins
— Binance (~$80B est.) — unmatched liquidity, but major regulatory pressure
— Bitstamp ($45B) — old, respected, but limited in scale
Where others chase retail, Kraken invests in infrastructure.
Where others advertise, Kraken audits.
Where others scale fast, Kraken scales carefully.
In an industry defined by noise, Kraken wins by being quiet.
— Coinbase ($52B) — first-mover, huge scale, but regulation-sensitive
— Kraken ($15B) — institutional trust, strong compliance, stable margins
— Binance (~$80B est.) — unmatched liquidity, but major regulatory pressure
— Bitstamp ($45B) — old, respected, but limited in scale
Where others chase retail, Kraken invests in infrastructure.
Where others advertise, Kraken audits.
Where others scale fast, Kraken scales carefully.
In an industry defined by noise, Kraken wins by being quiet.
5
Evolution since entry
Between 2021 and 2025, Kraken:
— grew valuation by +43%
— doubled users
— nearly tripled daily trading volume
— expanded from spot & futures into staking and custody
— broadened regulatory footprint across EU and the Middle East
This isn’t explosive growth — it’s maturity.
Crypto didn’t need another rocketship.
It needed a backbone.
— grew valuation by +43%
— doubled users
— nearly tripled daily trading volume
— expanded from spot & futures into staking and custody
— broadened regulatory footprint across EU and the Middle East
This isn’t explosive growth — it’s maturity.
Crypto didn’t need another rocketship.
It needed a backbone.
6
What I see in it now
I didn’t invest in Kraken for the hype cycle.
I invested for the cycle after the hype.
Kraken proved something I deeply believe:
In crypto, the most durable companies aren’t the loud ones — they’re the disciplined ones.
When everything collapsed, Kraken stayed standing.
When trust evaporated, Kraken absorbed the institutions.
When regulation tightened, Kraken had already prepared.
Now, with public markets ahead and a healthier industry behind it, Kraken looks less like an exchange — and more like a financial institution for the next decade.
I invested for the cycle after the hype.
Kraken proved something I deeply believe:
In crypto, the most durable companies aren’t the loud ones — they’re the disciplined ones.
When everything collapsed, Kraken stayed standing.
When trust evaporated, Kraken absorbed the institutions.
When regulation tightened, Kraken had already prepared.
Now, with public markets ahead and a healthier industry behind it, Kraken looks less like an exchange — and more like a financial institution for the next decade.
Why I share these stories
From time to time, I revisit the companies I backed — not just to look at the numbers, but to understand what the journey says about the future.
Some investments shine immediately. Some take years to reveal their meaning.
Kraken’s story isn’t about crypto volatility.
It’s about the power of patience, discipline, and engineering-first thinking.
In 2021, Kraken felt like the quiet one.
In 2025, it feels like the one that understood the assignment.
Some investments shine immediately. Some take years to reveal their meaning.
Kraken’s story isn’t about crypto volatility.
It’s about the power of patience, discipline, and engineering-first thinking.
In 2021, Kraken felt like the quiet one.
In 2025, it feels like the one that understood the assignment.
These investments were made as part of my work with the Digital Disrupt venture club, a community exploring how technology reshapes industries, decisions, and human behavior — and I’m glad this story continues.
Tom
Venture Capitalist